Beyond better decision making: Accident reduction in avalanche terrain | Ian McCammon
Approximately 30 people each year die in backcountry avalanches in the United States. Research shows most accidents involve trained individuals, so education efforts focus on preventing decision-making errors at the start of a causal chain. Strategies include enhancing decision-making, developing decision aids, and implementing organizational controls. However, empirical data on the effectiveness of these approaches is scarce and evidence from other fields suggests the impact on recreational accidents may be limited. An ongoing international research project builds on a contemporary systems safety model that has proven successful in other domains. This model conceptualizes errors as a manifestation of systemic mismatches between risk management tasks, knowledge constructs to manage those risks and the situational demands placed on cognition. Sponsored by the American Avalanche Association, this project aims to develop an evidence-based User Guide that will assist students in identifying and mitigating persistent patterns in avalanche accidents. The outcomes of this project and its methodology have the potential for broad application in other areas of wilderness risk management.
Integrating Real-Time, Relational Environmental & Human Variables for More Accurate Risk Forecasting | Matthew Sheahan
Static models and historical data have long been used in outdoor adventure risk assessment, but the dynamic nature of wilderness environments calls for a more flexible approach. In order to generate predictive risk insights, OARI (Outdoor Adventure Risk Index), a next-generation risk assessment model, processes real-time environmental and human factor data. OARI provides an adaptable structure that can be trained for a range of applications, from weather-related hazard prediction and wildfire forecasting to hiking and backcountry skiing, by utilizing machine learning techniques and Bayesian updating. The fundamental methodology of OARI, its uses in adventure tourism and emergency response, and how it can improve decision-making for outdoor professionals, risk managers, and guides will all be covered in my presentation. Folks will learn how probabilistic modeling and real-time data integration can take the place of antiquated heuristics and provide a more unbiased, data-driven method of managing wilderness risk.
The Words We Choose: Power, Inclusion, and Outdoor Program Design | Alexandra Rhue
In times of uncertainty and decreasing support for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, there are still meaningful and effective ways in which we, as outdoor recreation professionals, can approach program design to still be considerate of creating programs that highlight a sense of belonging and meaning for our participants. In this short talk, I will discuss how making intentional language choices and stepping away from traditional language in outdoor program descriptions and marketing materials can impact new participants decision to be involved. Reflecting on our personal perception of language that can be tied to our identity as recreation professionals vs. language that appeals to the public that may or may not be experienced in recreation. Together participants and I will walk through using tools like the ACPA Framework for Racial Justice (2018), the Intercultural Development Continuum (IDC 2024), and a Power & Identity Wheel to assess where you as an individual and/or your organization might land in creating an inclusive program – with a goal of reframing programs from a monoculture mindset to an intercultural mindset.
Firewatch: a 3 teared systems/training/field authority approach | Moleek Busby
The purpose and goals of this session are for Moleek to share the work he has done at Washington Trails Association as the safety and risk management field operations senior manager. WTA is the largest state-led trail maintenance volunteer organization in the USA. The volunteer trails department of WTA got its start in 1993 and has worked closely with all land managers across the state, including but not limited to city, county, and federal entities. Working in the rugged terrains and wilderness of Washington State can add environmental risks like avalanches, high winds, severe wet saturation, heat, and, as climate change is a variable, especially wildfires. The main focus will be on showing WTA’s 3-tiered system of training, AQI field devices, 24/7 MOC effective transparency, and consistent communication. Moleek will give room in the space for sharing engaging questions and share some critical systems and incident reports tailored and focused on environmental hazards, wildfire awareness, support, and training
Speakers 
Field Operations Senior Manager, Washington Trails Association
Moleek is originally from the San Francisco Bay Area. A jack of all trades and master of some, he started his career in trail work with the California Conservation Corps. After college and some music projects in Chico, California, Moleek moved back to the SF Bay Area where he got...
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Assistant Director of Outdoor & Place-Based Signature Programs, Ohio University
Alexandra (Alex) Rhue is the Assistant Director of Outdoor & Place-Based Signature Programs at Ohio University. Alex’s work focuses on interdisciplinary experiential learning opportunities that foster a positive connection and understanding of the outdoors. Alex earned her bachelor’s...
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Student/Expedition Guide, Thompson Rivers University
I have been an expedition guide in the hiking, mountaineering and canoeing scene for over 4 years. I've guided throughout Ontario, British Colombia, Yukon and Alaska. Starting this journey in 2019, I received a diploma in adventure studies at Algonquin College, followed by a degree...
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Principal Scientist (Retired)
Ian McCammon (he/hm) was formally trained as a research engineer and through his working years has led a double life as an outdoor educator. As a field instructor for NOLS, Ian taught in mountaineering, winter and whitewater programs. He has also taught extensively as an avalanche...
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Thursday October 2, 2025 3:00pm - 4:30pm
EDT
New Hampshire
Holiday Inn By the Bay:88 Spring St, Portland, ME 04119
